Price of oilseeds

The price of oilseeds is expected to decline by 7.0% in 2025, reaching $18.58 per hundredweight, in response to robust production in the previous year. This elevated output has improved overall supply conditions following volatile years, despite ongoing supply chain uncertainties and the threat of new tariffs. The impact of these tariffs is mitigated by protections under the USMCA, which permits oilseeds grown within North America to enter the US market without additional duties, helping to moderate price declines by filling domestic supply gaps. These factors, combined with relatively stable demand, are working collectively to put downward pressure on oilseed prices in the current year.

The price of oilseeds exhibited considerable volatility from 2020 to 2025 before the current retreat. As economies reopened following pandemic-related shutdowns in 2021, pent-up demand for vegetable oils and downstream products surged, leading to a price increase of 19.5%. Persistent production disruptions and lower ending stocks, stemming from weak yields and adverse weather in preceding years, contributed to tightening supplies and supported prices during this period. Oilseed prices rose by 66.7% in 2022, driven by escalating supply chain difficulties, surging energy costs exacerbated by the war in Ukraine, and sharp increases in soybean prices. This situation was compounded by ongoing export and import rebounds, as domestic producers struggled to rebuild inventories while meeting elevated demand. However, the market subsequently experienced a pronounced correction, with oilseed prices declining by 19.8% in 2023 and a further 14.0% in 2024. Improved crop yields and alleviation of some supply chain constraints contributed to this downward trend, as robust production increased inventories and relieved upward price pressure. Further, moderation in soybean and energy prices in these later years helped stabilize input costs for oilseed processors.

Throughout the period, global macroeconomic factors, such as fluctuating crude oil prices, agricultural trade policies, and exogenous shocks including the COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine, played a significant role in shaping price movements. The price of soybeans, the dominant oilseed in vegetable oil production, continued to influence prices for alternative oilseeds as buyers shifted spending among oilseeds in response to relative price changes. Rising energy prices and increased demand for biofuels elevated oilseed prices in some years, while improved harvests and easing supply bottlenecks pushed prices lower in others. USMCA protections provided a stabilizing effect by ensuring consistent regional trade flows.

The cumulative impact of these trends resulted in a net decline in oilseed prices between 2020 and 2025, with recent strong supply dynamics and trade protections reinforcing downward pressure following the exceptional volatility seen during the pandemic and its immediate aftermath.