Price of red meat

The price of red meat is estimated to reach an index value of 250.2 in 2025, reflecting sustained upward pressure from a combination of supply constraints and elevated production costs. Persistent drought conditions have adversely affected major cattle-producing regions, reducing available pastureland and resulting in increased cattle culling. Shrinking herd sizes, now at multi-decade lows, have directly limited the supply of beef and other red meats. Elevated grain and feed prices, influenced by global supply disruptions and inflation, along with higher interest rates, have notably increased operational costs for ranchers. Throughout the supply chain, increased expenses related to transportation, labor, and processing have contributed further to overall price escalation.

Red meat prices experienced robust growth of 12.0% from 2020 to 2025. A central factor during this period was the pronounced tightening of cattle inventory caused by extended drought and high input costs. Pasture shortfalls forced ranchers to liquidate more cattle, diminishing the foundation for herd expansion. High prices for grain and feed heightened the cost of raising livestock, frequently deterring reinvestment in new stock. Interest rates increased as policymakers responded to broad inflation, raising the cost of securing financing for cattle operations. Meanwhile, global factors such as the COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine created further disruptions, contributing to general inflation and higher feed prices. Despite persistent price increases, domestic and export demand for red meat remained steady. Seasonal peaks were characterized by continued strong consumer purchasing, indicating resilient demand even amid elevated prices. Trade policy fluctuations and tariff changes influenced the competitiveness and cost of imported beef, adding volatility to pricing trends. In sum, the convergence of supply-side restrictions, inflationary pressures, increased supply chain costs, and sustained demand contributed to historic price highs.

These trends underline the importance of weather volatility and global economic uncertainty as critical influences on the red meat market environment. Weather events directly impact the fundamental supply base for cattle production, while disruptions in international grain markets, labor, and logistics manifest in persistently higher costs for producers and consumers. The resilience of consumer demand despite these pressures has acted as a stabilizing factor, helping maintain elevated price levels and limiting the downward adjustment that might otherwise arise from weakened affordability.

Price increases are attributable to the interaction of reduced supply, rising input prices, and consistent demand, leading to the highest red meat prices on record over the 2020–2025 period. The limitations on herd rebuilding and continued high costs suggest that these pressures are likely to persist until there is a significant change in either input pricing or environmental conditions.